Ergodicity! I wish I better understood this 40 years ago. I’m realising it’s becoming more relevant to many business owners and executives than ever before – so I’m sharing this concept with them so it might provide an insight or realisation they can act on …. for a better business and a better life.

Ergodicity in Sport (how I stumbled across this)

I came across the word Ergodicity last week from a client who is a competitive cyclist. He introduced me to the ergodicity concept in endurance sports. He referred me to the The Marathon Handbook where Ergodicity, for our needs, is described as a measure of how likely your approach to a situation is to yield the same result every time.

An ergodic seasoned marathon runner follows the same proven training regime and race strategy every year, largely avoiding injury, and consistently finishing around the same time. A non-ergodic approach would be to train sporadically, then enter a race and test out some exotic pace or nutrition strategy. Injury and drop-out rates for non-ergodic runners are quite high.

The Original Concept

Ergodicity, a concept from probability and statistical mechanics, has surprisingly deep implications when applied metaphorically to enduring in life, decision-making, and personal growth.

In basic terms, ergodicity is about whether the average of one path over time equals the average across many paths at a single time. In an ergodic system, what happens to one individual over time is representative of what happens to the group overall (averages over time = averages over ensemble).

In a non-ergodic system, an individual’s journey can diverge dramatically, and the average of all possible outcomes doesn’t reflect what happens to any one person over time.

Ergodicity in Business:

In Simon Sineks book ‘The Infinite Game’, he suggests that business should be an infinite game. That businesses don’t have a finish line. And because there is no finish line, there is no such thing as “winning” an infinite game. In an infinite game, the primary objective is to keep playing, with the best outcome possible being that you end your turn happy with your progress in it.

In essence, you don’t maximise for short-term wins—you optimise for longevity. This is exactly what playing the infinite game means

Ergodicity and Life:

Most of life is non-ergodic. Here’s how this matters for enduring:

You Can’t Rely on Averages to Make Life Choices. In a non-ergodic system like life, you don’t get to rerun it 1,000 times and take the average. You only get one path, so:

Taking big, risky decisions because “on average it works out” can be misleading.
Averages don’t protect you from catastrophic failure (like burnout, financial ruin, or health crises).  Survivability becomes more important than maximizing average outcomes.

Endurance strategy: Prioritize resilience and avoiding ruin over optimising for “expected value.”

Small losses are OK – Avoid Irreversible Ones

In a non-ergodic world:

A single catastrophic event (e.g., serious illness, bankruptcy, burnout) can end your game. Enduring means being conservative where failure is terminal and adventurous only where failure is survivable.

Example: Instead of quitting your job to gamble everything on a startup, build it as a side project until it’s viable. Why? Because the expected value may be high, but if failure means you’re out of income, it’s a non-ergodic risk.

Growth Compounds—But only if you stay in the game!

Personal growth, relationships, wealth, and knowledge often compound over time—but only if you’re still around. In non-ergodic systems, persistence > brilliance.

Success often goes to those who endure and iterate, not necessarily those who get lucky early. This is the idea behind Nassim Taleb’s phrase:

Mental Health and Wellbeing are core to endurance!

Treating mental and emotional energy as finite, non-ergodic resources helps us understand that burnout or long-term stress can’t be averaged out with short-term wins.

It’s not just about pushing harder; it’s about preserving yourself so you can keep going.

Endurance in a Non-Ergodic Life!

To endure in life, think like you’re living in a non-ergodic system:

  • Avoid ruin because one bad decision can end the game.
  • Build antifragility because you grow stronger from manageable stressors.
  • Think long-term because compounding benefits only work if you last.
  • Don’t trust averages because you don’t live the average—you live your life.
  • Protect your downside because asymmetry matters—losses can outweigh gains.

Dave Gribben has been working as a coach to senior leadership teams in many industries across the world for the past 16 years having spent most of his previous 27 year career in various senior leadership roles.